August Market Update

The FOMC has continued to be very accommodative to U.S. Equity investors in its attempts to spur economic activity. Coupled with slow but steady economic growth and a good jobs report, investors are as fearless as ever. This has been evidenced by rising prices into historically high valuations while the VIX (fear index) once again plummeting to low levels. While …

July Stock Market Update

Brexit was the big news for June as the UK surprised the world and voted to leave the European Union (EU). I won’t cover the details here as Brexit has been covered ad nauseam in the news. In the end the big concerns for investors are the rising dollar, the possibility of referendums in other countries to also leave the …

Retirement Investing Outlook July 2016

Our aggressive and passive portfolios continue to handily outperform their target retirement date benchmarks. On the other hand, the short-term rebound in U.S. stock prices has resulted in our active balanced and growth portfolios (for conservative investors or those at or near retirement),to fall to the point where we’re merely matching the benchmark target date funds.  That said, we’re still …

June Stock Market Update

While analyzing various investment sentiment indicators, the biggest theme that stands out in the market at this time is uncertainty. As an example, the AAII investment survey reports that almost 41% of investors are neutral compared to bearish or bullish, which is 10% higher than the historical average. This uncertainty stems mainly from poor employment reports, weak retail sales, slower …

May Stock Market Update

Despite five consecutive quarters of earnings declines and GDP growth that has fallen below 1%, the stock market recovery from February lows remains strong. I continue to search for a catalyst in the market that will support higher valuations. Other than continued stock buybacks and low interest rates, I’m still coming up empty. The current price-to-sales ratio is over 1.8 …

Retirement Investing Outlook April 2016

Our active model retirement portfolios continue to outperform Target Date Retirement Funds and leading investment newsletters.  These portfolios will carry greater weight as we’re once again approaching a tipping point for U.S. Stock Investors. With the recent price recovery, the U.S. stock market is again at historically high valuation levels. This makes it a particularly dangerous time for individual investors …

April Stock Market Update

Buy the dip once again prevailed. After one of the worst starts to the year ever, the S&P 500 has recovered to show a positive return year to date. We continue to be in a counter trend (buy short term lows and sell short term highs) trading environment. Short covering, corporate buy backs (which accounted for over 50% of stock …

March Stock Market Update

We finally saw the relief rally in March that I was expecting during this historically strong month for the stock market.  This rally however, has not been what I would call a healthy rally.  It has once again been driven by short covering, the help of a short-term spike in oil prices (despite oil inventories remaining extremely high), another rate …

February Market Trends to Use

The long-term moving averages including the 200 day moving average which is the most closely watched, has rolled over and is trending downward. This usually precludes further declines in price.  Prior to a further decline however, prices typically rise to test the 200 day moving average. If prices do increase to the 200-day average and drop from there, it will …

Retirement Investing Outlook January 2016

Our reduced exposure to China paid off start of this year along with the overall decrease in US equities. Our concerns with high valuations in the U.S. market and the risk/reward of smaller future gains or losses may also finally be realized this year if the first full trading week of January is any indication. This demonstrates the importance of …